巴比特论坛

发表于 2018-10-16 18:48:18 | 显示全部楼层
活动类型:
线上活动
开始时间:
2018-10-17 20:00 至 2018-10-17 21:30 商定
活动地点:
第79期
性别:
不限
已报名人数:
0

Gnosis是建立在以太坊协议上的去中心化预测市场。Gnosis为人们对任何事件的结果预测提供了一个开放平台,大大简化了定制预测市场应用的创建过程。同时,Gnosis利用了区块链信任机器以及智能合约自动执行的特点使玩家可以更加灵活自由的进入预测市场,给预测市场的带来了更加巨大的想象空间。

10月17日(周三)晚8点,Unitimes区块链技术与应用AMA有幸邀请到了Gnosis联合创始人&CTO——Stefan George,他将为大家进行以“去中心化预测市场:重新分配未来”为主题的分享。

Gnosis如何实现资源重新分配?预测市场有哪些潜在应用?如何创建自己的预测市场?

本次AMA在Unitimes微信群和巴比特社区同步进行,欢迎留言提问!

嘉宾:
Stefan George,Gnosis联合创始人&CTO

时间:
2018.10.17,20:00

AMA 8bt.jpg

您需要登录后才可以发帖 登录 | 立即注册 | 用新浪微博登录

最新最热
同步小助手 2018-10-17 19:59:04
1. Hi Stefan. Nice having you with us. Would you introduce yourslef and Gnosis first?
Stefan你好,欢迎参加Unitimes第8期AMA。请先介绍一下你自己以及Gnosis。
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:24:43 Stefan_George: Hi, I am Stefan. I am CTO and co-founder of Gnosis.Gnosis is building software for the Ethereum ecosystem. We are working on our rediction market framework Apollo, a decentralized exchanges (dutchX) and convenient multisig wallets (Gnosis Safe).We started Gnosis at the beginning of 2015 as part of ConsenSys. At that time we were 3 people.Once Ethereum went live, we were the first team to deploy a prediction market DApp on Ethereum.In April last year we did our own token sale. Based on this funding we were able to create a team of over 50 people, mostly developers working on all Gnosis products.

大家好,我是Stefan,是Gnosis公司的联合创始人以及首席技术官。Gnosis基于以太坊生态搭建软件,目前我们的工作重心是开发预测市场框架Apollo、去中心化的交易所dutchX,以及实用的多重签名钱包Gnosis Safe。Gnosis是在2015年初成立的,当时只是作为ConsenSys的一部分,团队只有3人。在以太坊上线后,我们是第一支在以太坊平台上搭建预测市场应用的团队。去年4月,我们进行了ICO,基于这笔资金,我们的团队扩张到了50多人,其中大部分是Gnosis的产品开发人员。
收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 19:59:20
2. What are the use cases of Gnosis prediction market? Would you give us some examples?
Gnosis的预测市场有哪些应用场景?可以给我们举例说明一下吗?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:24:57 Stefan_George: There are many use-cases. They range from information discovery to sports betting to insurance/hedging to futures. Prediction markets are a very fundamental mechanism, which allow to replicate most financial products.One of the most exciting use-cases is information discovery: In Germany there is an unfinished airport, which was supposed to be opened a few years ago. Still today it it unknown when the airport will be opened. We can create a PM predicting the opening date of the airport: Will the Berlin airport opened until end 2019? By providing funding to the market, the entity interested in the information is setting an incentive for anyone, who has more knowledge about the event to trade on the market and thereto changing the market price, which represents the probability of the airport opening on time.


我们有很多应用场景,包括信息发掘、体育博彩、保险/对冲,还有期货等等。市场预测是一个非常基础的机制,允许复制大部分金融产品。最有意思的一个场景是信息发掘:比如说,在德国有一个未完工的机场,几年前就该开放了,但是直到今天我们还不知道它到底什么时候开放。我们就可以创建一个预测机场开放日期的项目-柏林机场能在2019年底前开放吗?通过向市场提供资金,对这个事件感兴趣的实体会刺激了解这个事件的人在市场上进行交易,从而改变市场价格,这个预测也代表了机场按时开放的概率。
收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 19:59:32
3. Why does prediction market has a higher forecasting accuracy than individuals? What's the theory behind it?
为什么预测市场比个人预测的准确率高很多?这背后是什么原理?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:25:10 Stefan_George: PMs are the superior forecasting tool, because they allow every market participant to express their believe with the amount they are willing to stake: Putting your money where your mouth is.The more confident you are, the more money you put at stake and the bigger your influence on the market price will be.Doing this on blockchain has the advantage to allow everyone globally to participate in the same market removing the risk of third party custody.Blockchain allows to create a global liquidity pool aggregating knowledge of all participants into one number, which is the price of the outcome.

预测市场是一种很好的预测工具,因为它能让每个市场参与者用他们愿意下注的金额来表达他们的看法-“把钱放到你的嘴上”。你越自信,你下的赌注就越大,你对市场价格的影响就越大。在区块链上这样做的好处在于,世界上每一个人都可以参与到同一个市场,没有第三方托管的风险。区块链通过创建一个全球流动池,将所有参与者的知识汇集成一个数字,它就是结果的价格。
收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 19:59:55
4. What are outcome tokens? What's the function of outcome tokens in the prediction process of an event or any other thing?
什么是“结果代币”?结果代币在预测某个事件的过程中起什么作用?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:25:20 Stefan_George: Let's say we have the prediction market: Will the Berlin airport opened until end 2019? There are two possible outcomes: Yes, No. These outcomes are represented with ERC20 tokens, which can be traded.The way how a PM works is: You send 1 ETH to the PM contract and the contract returns to you 1 Yes and 1 No outcome token. Once the event is decided the outcome token representing the factual outcome can be redeemed for 1 ETH.The way a user can make a profit is by keeping the token you believe to represent the winning outcome and selling the other token on the market. The price you receive for the sold token is your profit in case your prediction is correct.

让我们假设这样一个预测市场:柏林机场会在2019年底前开放吗?有两种可能的结果:Yes和No,这两个结果用可交易的ERC20代币代表,接下来就是预测市场是如何运作。你向预测市场合约发送1个ETH,然后合约会发送给你1个Yes和1个No结果代币。一旦事件确定,代表事实结果的结果代币就可以兑换回1 个ETH。用户获取利润的方式就是保留你预测代表胜利结果的代币,然后在市场上出售其他代币。如果最终你的预测是正确的,你出售其他代币获得的钱就是利润。
收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 20:00:09
5. Gnosis is not a public chain.Then why would people want to build Dapps on your platform rather than other public chains like Ethereum?
Gnosis不是一条公链。那么为什么大家会愿意在你们的平台上构建Dapps,而不是去一些公链(比如以太坊)上创建呢?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:25:28 Stefan_George: Gnosis is building all infrastructure on Ethereum, which is a public chain. We are currently not building our own chain.

Gnosis是基于以太坊网络公链搭建基础设施的,我们目前还没有开发自己的链。
收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 20:00:49
6. People tend to equate Gnosis with prediction market. But I learnt that you are also building a DEX called the Dutch Exchange which is based on the Dutch auction principle. Why do you use this principle?
大家通常都会把Gnosis与预测市场联系起来。但我了解到你们也有在做一个去中心化交易所,叫DutchX,这个交易所使用“荷兰式拍卖”原则,你们为什么用这个原则?

注:荷兰式拍卖亦称“减价式拍卖”。减价式拍卖通常从非常高的价格开始,高得有时没有人竞价,这时,价格就以事先确定的降价阶梯,由高到低递减,直到有竞买人愿意接受为止。
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:25:39 Stefan_George: Gnosis focus has shifted to include DEX. The DutchX is our first DEX. DutchX is fundamentally different, because unlike 0x, Etherdelta, IDEX, we are not relying on an order-book model but use an auction. This has several advantages.

1. We can aggregate liquidity over time, because we collect orders over time and then sell them all at once for one single clearing price. This is important because many tokens have little liquidity resulting in a big bid-ask spread in order-books.

2. No front-running: Using a single clearing price prevents intermediaries to take advantage of information they acquire before anyone else. For example a miner mining a block can decide what transactions to include and the order of execution. Using a regular order-book a miner could decide to match the most lucrative orders himself by inserting his own transaction first.

3. Full decentralization: If an exchange relies on an off-chain orderbook, there is always some central point to maintain this order-book. So any off-chain order book DEX is not fully decentralized and has to be selective with tokens to be listed. On the DutchX any token can be listed! Is it fully decentralized because it only relies on the smart contract and the Ethereum blockchain.

Gnosis 目前集中精力在去中心化交易所,DutchX是我们开发的第一个去中心化交易所。DutchX从根本上来说不同于0x、Etherdelta、IDEX等去中心化交易系统,因为我们不依赖于订单模式,而是使用竞拍的形式。这种模式有几个优点:

1. 我们可以在一段时间内累积流动性,因为我们在一段时间内收集订单,然后一次性以一个结算价出售。这一点很重要,因为许多代币流动性不强,导致订单中出现了较大的买卖价差。
2. 不会有抢先交易:使用单一的清算价格可以防止中介机构利用他们先于其他人获得的信息。例如,挖块的矿工可以决定这个块包含哪些交易以及执行的顺序。在常规的订单簿,矿工可以决定优先处理打包费最高的交易,在这种情况下他可以出高价插队自己的交易。
3. 完全去中心化:如果交易所依赖于链下的订单簿,那么总是需要一些中心点来维护这个订单簿。因此,任何基于链下订单的去中心化交易所实际上都不是完全去中心化的,而且这些交易所是选择性地上线某些代币。而在DutchX,任何项目都可以在这里上币!所以它是完全去中心化的,只基于智能合约和以太坊区块链。
收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 20:01:30
7. The DutchX Protocol is already live on Mainnet. When will the community have full access to DutchX?
DutchX已经上主网了。社区什么时候能有完全访问DutchX的权限?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:25:50 Stefan_George: In a couple of weeks. Visit slow.trade and stay tuned :)
We do everything to be officially live before devcon!

几周后就可以了,到时候大家就可以交易了,请继续关注我们哦。
在开发者大赛之前我们会上线所有项目。
收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 20:01:41
8. The distribution of global access to technologies, infrastructure, and resources is now uneven. How Gnosis facilitate trades and create incentives to distribute those resources?
目前,全球技术、基础设施和资源分布不均衡 。Gnosis如何推出激励措施来加速交易、重新分配这些资源?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:26:00 Stefan_George: Gnosis is building a lot of core infrastructure. We are building an easy-to-use wallet with recovery options: https://safe.gnosis.io/ This should help to let more people participate in our ecosystem. In addition, we work on market-mechanisms, to allow fair trading for everyone. Today high frequency traders/bots extract a lot of value from exchange at the expense of everyone else trading. We build a batch auction mechanism, which prevents any kind of arbitrage within the same auction and gives everyone the same price.

Gnosis目前正在搭建多项核心基础设施。我们正在开发一个易用的钱包,它会带有恢复功能 (详情链接https://safe.gnosis),会让更多人参与到我们的生态系统中。除此之外,我们还致力于市场机制,让每个人都能公平交易。如今,高频交易者/机器人从交易所获取大量利润,而牺牲了其他人的交易。我们建立了一个批量拍卖机制,它可以防止在同一个拍卖中出现任何形式的套利,并保证给每个人提供相同的价格。
收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 20:01:53
9. Decentralized prediction markets often require oracles to provide data and resolve prediction markets. This places a lot of power in the hands of an oracle. So there is a risk that the use of these oracles for resolving markets could re-centralize the decentralized protocol. How will Gnosis solve this problem?
去中心化预测市场通常需要预言机来提供数据,这就让预言机的手里掌握了很大的权利。所以这有可能导致去中心化协议的“再次中心化”。Gnosis会如何解决这个问题呢?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:26:10 Stefan_George: We are optimistic there are solutions and wish best success to Augur to create a working decentralized oracle :)

我们乐观地认为会有解决方案,也祝Augur(竞争对手)能成功开发出去中心化的有用的预言机。
收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 20:02:03
10. How do you view the development of prediction market in China?
最后一个问题:你如何看待中国去中心化市场的发展?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:27:01 Stefan_George: China is an amazing market. Chinese have huge interest in many financial products, which they can currently not access. Using prediction markets we can create new equivalent financial products available to anyone. China is also great in adoption and creating businesses. I can see first widespread adoption of decentralized technology will happen in China. In Germany most people still pay in cash. In China everyone is using WeChat. China is at least 10 years ahead of Germany in terms of adoption :)

中国是一个令人吃惊的市场。中国人对很多金融产品都有很大的兴趣,而这些产品他们目前却无法获得。通过预测市场,我们可以创造新的等价金融产品给任何人使用。在中国,商业的发展和应用也很快速,我觉得去中心化技术将首先在中国被广泛采用。在德国,大多数人仍用现金支付;而在中国,每个人都在用微信,在这个方面,中国至少领先德国10年。
收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 20:35:56
Hi Stefan. If an event doesn’t have a clear outcome, that is, you can’t tell who won, how would Gnosis deal with it?

你好Stefan,如果一个事件没有一个明确的结果,也就是说,你没法判断到底谁赢了,这种情况Gnosis会怎么处理?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:36:41 Stefan_George: If Gnosis runs the market, we make sure the event is not ambiguous. In case a third party runs the market it is in their responsibility.

如果Gnosis在运作这个市场,我们会确保这个事件不会模棱两可。如果有第三方在运作,这是他们的责任。

收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 20:36:06
what is the scope of prediction

预测的范围包括哪些?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:36:49 Stefan_George: All kind of financial products: Futures on assets, Betting, hedging, information gathering, decision making (futarchy).

包括各类金融产品:资产期货、投注、对冲、信息汇总、决策(futarchy)。

收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 20:36:23
Hi Stefan, we are a publich chain which also engage in decentralized prediction such as game and sports prediction. Will Gnosis cosider applying on other public chain like us?

你好Stefan,我们公司也是从事游戏及体育类的预测市场,并且有自己的公链,Gnosis 是否会考虑应用于像我们这样的公链?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:36:56 Stefan_George: We are focused on Ethereum but our smart contracts are open source and can be deployed on any blockchain supporting EVM. We may also consider other chains in the future if applicable.

我们目前还是基于以太坊,但我们的智能合约是开源的,可以部署在任何支持EVM的区块链平台上。如果可以的话,我们将来也会考虑其他链。
收起
同步小助手 2018-10-17 20:37:29
Is there a possiblity that buyers of DutchX will join up to wait for the lowest price(like they have formed an alliance), and nobody makes a bid before that point? If yes, how would you prevent it from happening?

DutchX的用户是否有可能联合起来等待最低价格(就像他们结盟了一样),在达到最低价之前没有人会出价?如果有这种可能的话,你们会如何阻止它发生?
回复 收起
2018-10-17 20:37:47 Stefan_George: This is theoretically possible. However, anyone can participate in an auction. Not participating increases the risk of someone else getting the better deal. It is a tragedy of the commons situation.

这在理论上是有可能的。但是,任何人都可以参与到拍卖里来,如果联合起来不参与,只会让其他人获得更好的交易,这就是同盟的风险和悲剧。
收起

本期嘉宾

神回复

AMA时间:2018-10-17 20:00 - 2018-10-17 21:30 热度(784) 讨论(34)
返回顶部 返回列表

登录

发帖